Chinese aviation market is world's first to return to pre-Covid levels

While China has been impacted as much as any nation by the Covid pandemic, the world's most populous nation is now seemingly emerging from this crisis. China went into a strict lockdown after the virus originated in the country back in November of last year, but the situation has improved considerably since then.

Data indicates that domestic flights in China have largely returned to normal, and in fact at one point during the year the levels of domestic air traffic in China had exceeded last year's figures.

(Above: Chinese domestic flight data)

Indeed, recent reports suggest that flights in China should have fully recovered imminently. Figures from ForwardKeys indicate that Chinese air traffic will have stabilized completely by the beginning of September. While data from within China indicates that flight bookings have all reached 98% of what would usually be expected.

This can be considered hugely significant, as it represents the first time since Covid-19 broke out that a major segment of the aviation market has fully returned to pre-pandemic levels.

It isn't all good news for China, though. The impact of the ongoing Covid pandemic has massively reduced international air travel from China, and this situation is still very much ongoing.

(Above: Chinese international flight data)

And there are still regional variations within China, as Chinese travel to Beijing is still 24.8% behind the same period in 2019, following a second coronavirus outbreak in early June. This is immediately reflected in the figures for major airports in China. Both Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport and Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport have essentially returned to normal:

(Above: Flight data for Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport)

(Above: Flight data for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport)

But this certainly isn't the case for Beijing Capital International Airport:

(Above: Flight data for Beijing Capital International Airport)

Furthermore, some of China's major airlines have also been hugely affected. Air China has just reported a massive net loss in the first half of 2020, with widened travel lockdowns impacting on the flag carrier. Air China lost 9.44 billion yuan ($1.38 billion) during the first six months of 2020, which contrasted markedly with its CNY3.14 billion ($465 million) profit during the same period last year.

Flight data for Air China is starkly in decline, even as the airline works to restore operating performance to normal levels going forward.

(Above: Flight data for Air China)

However, other airlines in China have been less seriously affected. Both China Eastern and China Southern recorded big losses during the same accounting period. But flight data for the two airlines indicates that they are also returning to normal, in what can be considered a blooming travel market in China.

(Above: Flight data for China Eastern Airlines)

(Above: Flight data for China Southern Airlines)

The picture in China gives some idea of how air travel can and will recover in the months and years to come. Although the current prognosis is extremely gloomy, as the world recuperates from the Covid virus, air travel will naturally begin to increase, and the aviation industry will return to something resembling its pre-Covid form.

Nonetheless, this is some way away, in the opinion of most industry experts. And, according to IATA's latest forecast, global air passenger traffic will decline by 55% in 2020, with airlines collectively suffering a loss of $84.3 billion.

It would perhaps be unfair to assert that the industry should look to China for inspiration, in what is a highly complex climate. But what can be said is that Chinese airlines have led the way in recovering from the Covid pandemic, and are currently significantly outperforming their North American and European equivalents.